The hottest photovoltaic industry in China, such a

If China's photovoltaic industry has been riding a roller coaster for four years, no enterprise has made profits.

the roller coaster ride of Chinese wind power and photovoltaic practitioners slid from the top to the bottom in just four years

unlike the overcapacity caused by technological and economic cycles in developed countries in Europe and the United States, China has a unique logic of overcapacity: the State Council or central ministries and commissions release industrial support policies; The local government plays a decisive role in the next process, lobbying enterprises to change banks and settle down, matching bank credit, implementing preferential measures and initially promising sales channels; In order to occupy the local market, enterprises have to build factories widely, coupled with the prevailing idea that growing up can kidnap the government and banks, resulting in a sharp expansion of production capacity

when the market demand is not clear, China's production capacity often bursts from the supply side. The solution of simply expanding demand not only costs money, but also can't save the poor. In terms of wind power and photovoltaic industries, resolving the current overcapacity or starting from the supply side

Chinese overcapacity

the current overcapacity phenomenon in China is not a single economic cycle phenomenon

in 2013, no photovoltaic manufacturing enterprise can make profits. The research results of the Ministry of science and technology in Qinghai are frustrating: some new enterprises are forced to stop production before they have time to put into production. Even those with strong strength can only sell at a loss without calculating the depreciation of equipment, just to barely maintain the cash flow

the situation of wind power equipment enterprises is similar to that of photovoltaic. After a large-scale shutdown in many bases for more than a year, the former giant Sinovel wind power continued to shut down eight overseas subsidiaries in the inland for half a year; Some production lines of Goldwind technology were shut down, and the base for maintaining production was reduced to producing a fan in a few days; Foreign funded enterprises have evacuated from China

at present, China's new energy enterprises are facing serious overcapacity

according to the statistics of China wind power development report 2012, the production capacity of China's main wind power equipment manufacturing industry has reached more than 30GW in 2012, but the installed capacity of domestic new wind turbines was only 18gw that year, and the foreign market has not been effectively opened, resulting in more than 40% of the production capacity of domestic equipment being idle. According to the latest calculation, in the first half of 2013, China's comprehensive capacity idle rate of wind power equipment exceeded 60%

according to the data of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, China's photovoltaic module production capacity reached 45gw in 2012, while the global production of that year was only 38.4gw. Even assuming that the modules were sold out, China's production capacity exceeded the world's total demand by nearly 7gw

according to Chen Letian, chief macro researcher of nichin securities, China's general capacity utilization rate is 57.8%, which is about 15 percentage points lower than the desired range of 72%-74%. Chen Letian said that this means that China's overcapacity is very serious at present

Shen Jianguang, a Chinese columnist of the financial times, said that China's current overcapacity is not a single economic cycle

with developed countries in Europe and the United States, the technological cycle and economic cycle lead to phased overcapacity. Since its inception, the impact testing machine has the characteristics of stable transmission, low noise, high speed accuracy, wide speed regulation range, long service life and so on; Auto parts experimental machine adopts microcomputer automatic control. The experimental process is different from national rejuvenation. China follows its own set of excess logic. Guided by the industrial support policies of the central ministries and commissions, local governments formulated preferential policies and set thresholds, and enterprises were forced or voluntarily to expand production capacity sharply

the temptation of changing resources for industry

Zhenbei cashmere, which has long settled in the local area, has become a photovoltaic module industry irrelevant to its main business under the lobbying of the local government

in this process, local governments played a decisive role

solarmedia Wang Chao, a British research institution, recalled the lobbying ability of local governments to create production capacity. In 2009, solarmedia planned a photovoltaic industrial park at the invitation of Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province. The government was responsible for finding local people from all walks of life, such as small commodities and textiles, to lobby them to invest in the photovoltaic industry

Zhenbei cashmere, which has already settled in the local area, is the process of transferring photovoltaic modules irrelevant to its main business. In May 2009, Zhejiang Beisheng photovoltaic was established

it is understood that there are a large number of enterprises switching to new energy similar to besun PV. These enterprises used to be laymen in order to make fast money

rent a factory. You can start production by buying a production line. When the market is good, you can recover the cost in one year. The head of Beijing Jianheng Certification Center said that it is not easy to go deep into research and development and occupy the commanding height of technology. China's low-end capacity is often surplus

however, local governments do not always greet each other with a smile. Affected by local GDP, fiscal revenue, employment and other assessment indicators, it is difficult for enterprises that have not settled locally to achieve sales

Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, in addition to Longyuan Power intertidal pilot wind farm (wind turbines of 9 enterprises were tried), wind turbines installed in the coastal areas of the province, such as Sinovel wind power, Goldwind technology, Shanghai Electric, etc., all built factories and invested in Yancheng or Dafeng City. Longyuan Power, a local wind power developer, has repeatedly received notes from local governments. Jiangsu Yancheng development and Reform Commission has specially issued documents to wind power developers, hoping that they will give priority to purchasing Sinovel wind power units

the protectionism of local governments has obviously broken the strategic layout of Sinovel wind power

according to the statistics of Jiangsu Provincial Local Taxation Bureau, as of June 2011, the cumulative investment of Sinovel wind power in Yancheng reached 6billion yuan. According to the statistics of Sinovel wind power, the annual expansion of the first phase project completed in 2009 alone will reduce the production capacity of 000 1.5 MW, 300 3 MW and small batch 5 MW wind turbines. It is sufficient for the current total installed capacity of wind power in Jiangsu Province

however, since the establishment of the plant, affected by the changes in market supply and demand, the construction of Sinovel Yancheng base has always been sporadic, and the second phase of the project has not even been put into use at all. In the local area, like Sinovel, there are also complete machine manufacturers such as Goldwind technology and Shanghai Electric

not only Yancheng, but also wind power. Since the release of the national signal to support new energy in 2008, more than 100 municipal and county governments have announced the construction of new energy industrial parks

local protectionism uses resources for industry to lure, and enterprises have to build factories everywhere to obtain local wind energy resources, and then use resources to exchange orders. Yang Xiaosheng, a senior expert of wind power and former chief engineer of Longyuan Power, said that the expansion caused by this is irrational and quite blind, causing unfair competition and distorting the market

simply expanding demand has hidden dangers

with the rapid rise of installed capacity, renewable energy subsidies have been stretched

with the guidance of national industrial policies and the matching of local governments, the direction of bank credit is inclined

if enterprises are not proficient in lending, banks will also teach skills hand in hand. A person in charge of a wind power equipment manufacturer said that the vast majority of the enterprise's funds are borrowed

not only the new energy industry, but also shipbuilding, flat glass, steel, cement and other industries can not expand their production capacity without the credit expansion of banks

the CFO of a wind power giant said: the more money you borrow, the more banks and governments dare not let you go bankrupt

it is understood that the bank debt of this wind power enterprise amounts to billions of yuan, so there is no need to rush to repay the money, and the bank has repeatedly extended the loan renewal policy on the condition that the interest is paid first

at least don't let the enterprise go bankrupt during my tenure. The financial officer quoted the vice president in charge of a bank

following this unique logic, local governments, banks and enterprises have jointly performed a Chinese style reincarnation of overcapacity

how to save China's scenery? The most extensive way to save is to expand demand. However, this method seems to no longer work

taking wind power as an example, enterprises have gradually lost the power to expand installed capacity and production equipment

even if the wind farm is approved in the three northern regions, I will not install the wind turbine, which is obviously at a loss. Yang Xiaosheng said. Longyuan Power is the first wind power development enterprise in China and the second in the world

Sanbei is the region with the best wind resources in China, but the wind farms in this region are generally at a loss due to serious wind curtailment

although the problem of power rationing in southern China has been alleviated, the construction cost remains high due to its poor wind resources, high land acquisition costs and limited scale. No enterprise dares to ensure profits, except Longyuan Power said that its Xiaan low wind speed wind farm can achieve meager profits

for wind power equipment manufacturers, with the unit price falling from more than 6000 yuan/kW in 2007 to the current 3000 yuan/kW, most of them are at a loss sale, except for vassal enterprises such as Guodian united power

more seriously, with the rapid increase of installed capacity, renewable energy subsidies have been stretched

Liu Lei, deputy general manager of Huadian Fu new energy company, said: the state owes me more than 900million yuan in subsidies. Yang Dong, chief engineer of Guodian technology and environment, said that the subsidy accounts receivable of Guodian group reached nearly 10 billion yuan. According to the statistics of Wang Yonggan of China Power Council, up to now, the arrears of renewable energy subsidies total more than 23 billion yuan. The renewable energy gap is likely to grow

even if the above two problems do not exist, simply expanding demand may not be effective. Whether it is photovoltaic or wind power, China's production capacity has exceeded the current global demand

Chen Letian believes that resolving the current overcapacity should start from the supply side. On the one hand, through industrial transfer, the excess capacity is transferred to countries at a lower stage of development, such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Africa and other regions; On the other hand, set standards for resources, energy and environmental protection, and eliminate a number of backward production capacity; At the same time, the overall quality of production capacity will be improved through enterprise mergers and acquisitions